Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 115.565779 133.128961 153.145496 177.791106 207.516918 242.462435 287.021223
2025-11-30 96.422806 119.470873 148.261997 187.419936 240.154468 309.991394 411.685831
2025-12-07 81.712330 106.657193 139.965580 188.781579 260.407142 364.847016 535.010388
2025-12-14 72.315840 98.420098 135.216622 192.610369 283.244414 427.159924 687.210380
2025-12-21 64.277206 90.466349 129.042267 192.400875 298.899207 481.076627 842.610959
2025-12-28 60.737288 88.344057 130.817195 204.308169 336.053201 579.915872 1116.320548
2026-01-04 57.190670 85.597479 131.001240 213.303348 369.766229 681.588385 1439.588683
2026-01-11 53.822890 82.621006 130.244487 220.289790 401.027273 787.369430 1823.464765
2026-01-18 50.286562 78.895134 127.625373 223.253277 424.780335 884.189441 2236.798932
2026-01-25 46.779869 74.798984 123.776652 223.110104 441.837881 970.867759 2672.985497
2026-02-01 43.030563 69.882367 117.831864 217.787923 446.203914 1027.569909 3051.324636
2026-02-08 39.697616 65.379011 112.132738 212.072825 448.424419 1079.557293 3450.409670
2026-02-15 36.691425 61.289213 106.956567 207.116111 452.564065 1142.002109 3954.860535
2026-02-22 36.009654 61.410107 109.949212 220.564495 506.628281 1375.588812 5424.149977
2026-03-01 34.205728 59.234880 108.103317 222.729254 531.639224 1529.418962 6711.537426
2026-03-08 32.821019 57.729000 107.439836 227.566221 565.578839 1731.514711 8565.992648
2026-03-15 31.118521 55.441649 104.875764 227.346826 584.806190 1890.039184 10423.198438
2026-03-22 30.758443 55.795162 108.000051 242.008474 654.416542 2292.848043 14986.179775
2026-03-29 30.107396 55.488333 109.628430 253.108079 716.572883 2709.868102 21000.476221
2026-04-05 29.306161 54.792126 110.291155 261.743830 773.581055 3148.827364 29034.936283
2026-04-12 28.232063 53.422711 109.241835 265.411006 814.181320 3537.973672 38408.389305
2026-04-19 27.004688 51.623463 106.988918 265.233858 840.454093 3871.084759 48974.956262
2026-04-26 25.504174 49.117338 102.797503 258.650367 839.581223 4041.304263 57708.248534